The Forecasting Process

This project will use what is known as the Delphi Process, which is a proven tool for dealing with complex problems. In our case, these complexities are the newly emerging growth patterns in the region that are not necessarily consistent with historical trends.

The Delphi Process is a consensus building process that relies on the wisdom and expertise of community leaders to identify patterns in the growth and development of the community. The Delphi Process elicits opinions from participants with the goal of obtaining a group response from a panel of community experts.

This method of building community consensus has three distinguishing features, which are:

  1. Confidentiality for all respondents;
  2. Iteration with controlled feedback; and
  3. Statistically interpretable group responses.

Specifically, the El Paso Region Delphi Process will gather information from knowledgeable area leaders to:

  • Examine growth trends and future year forecast scenarios and identify the factors that affect growth in the El Paso Metropolitan Area. Obtain a thorough understanding of high and low growth areas; and
  • Identify areas with high and low growth potential;
  • Allocate regional growth to district level.

This information will be used to develop short- and long-range population and employment forecasts. These forecasts will be used in regional transportation plans for the El Paso Region.

The flowchart below provides a graphic representation of how the El Paso Region Delphi Process will work.