FWD El Paso will utilize what is known as the Delphi Method (no relation with the auto parts maker Delphi), which is a proven tool for dealing with complex problems.  In our case, these complexities are the newly emerging growth patterns in the region that are not necessarily consistent with historic trends. The Delphi Method is a consensus building process that relies on the wisdom and expertise of community leaders to identify patterns in the growth and development of the community. The Delphi Method elicits opinions from participants, with the goal of obtaining a group response from a panel of community experts.  This method of building community consensus has three distinguishing features, which are: anonymity for all respondents; iteration with controlled feedback; and statistically interpretable group responses.

Specifically, FWD El Paso will gather information from knowledgeable area leaders to obtain verification of the reasonableness of control totals, to obtain a thorough understanding of high and low growth areas, and to identify areas with high and low growth potential.  From this information, FWD El Paso will be used to develop short and long range population and employment forecasts that will be used in the MPO’s regional transportation plans.

The flowchart below provides a graphical representation of how FWD El Paso’s Delphi Method will work.